Sagarin ranks the Dukes at #57 and Miami at #280.  Using Sagarin's Predictor scores, the Dukes are a 18 1/2 pt. favorite.

Real Time RPI ranks the Dukes at #59 and Miami at #311.  Curiously, it makes the Dukes only a 5 pt. favorite. 

Looking at Miami's 1-3 record against a pretty weak schedule, I tend to think that the margin of the Dukes' victory tonight will approximate Sagarin's prediction.